Basin Priority Map

Interactive map showing assessed basins (approximated by province boundaries). Click a region for details. Color indicates priority: green = high, gold = medium, red = low.

High Priority
Medium Priority
Low Priority
Additional
Not Assessed

Basin Comparison Matrix

Traffic-light assessment across key screening criteria derived from stakeholder interviews. Green = favorable, Yellow = mixed/conditional, Red = unfavorable.

Basin Terrain Water System Water Stress Parcel Size Socioeconomic Drip Adoption Tillage Change Farmer Openness Gov't Support Priority
Konya KapalıGoodMixedHighMedLow-MedHighPossibleOpenUsedHIGH
Fırat-Dicle (Urfa)GoodMixedHighFragmentedLowGrowingWith SDIMixedActiveHIGH
Fırat-Dicle (Mardin)GoodClosedHighFragmentedLowGrowingWith SDIOpenActiveHIGH
SakaryaGoodModernModerateLargeGoodHighPossibleNeed proofUsedHIGH
Seyhan (Adana)GoodMixedHighLargeWith supportLowYounger genBig farmsLimitedMED-HIGH
Ceyhan (K.Maraş)GoodNot readyModerateSmall70% unawareLowExcessiveMixedUsedMEDIUM
Susurluk (Bursa)GoodOpen+pumpsModerateSmall-MedGood80% dripAlready lowOpenUsedMEDIUM
Doğu Akdeniz (Mersin)MixedMixedHighLargeDecliningSomeAfter corn hardSome openBad policyMEDIUM
Kızılırmak (Nevşehir)GoodRogarModerateMed-LargeDebtCorn dripAwareSome openBarriersMEDIUM
Gediz (Menderes)SaltyOpenHighMixedGood-DecliningFlood30cm maxConsciousIf forcedLOW-MED
B. Menderes (Aydın)GoodOpenHighVery smallDecliningFloodTraditionalResistantNot enoughLOW
Akarçay (Afyon)Flat/cropsClosedOKSmallLimited90% corn dripTraditionalResistantSelf-fundLOW
Küçük Menderes (İzmir)GoodMixedHighVery smallGood95% floodTraditionalResistantStrictLOW
Batı Karadeniz (Düzce)GoodOpenOKVery smallGoodAll floodWillingWant SDINo actionLOW
BurdurGoodMixedHighSmallUsed to dripCorn dripTraditionalResistantUsedLOW

Pre-Screening Criteria

Criteria identified through stakeholder interviews and cross-referenced across all 15 basins for the MCDM analysis in RQ1b.

CategoryCriterionRationale from Interviews
WaterWater stress levelBasins with decreasing dam/groundwater levels have strongest adoption motivation
WaterWater system suitability (closed canals)Open canals are the #1 infrastructure barrier; closed systems enable immediate adoption
WaterWater availability for irrigationMust have enough water to irrigate — risk of full switch to dryland farming eliminates program viability
InfrastructureConsistent energy accessPressurized systems require electricity; regions with frequent cuts need alternatives
InfrastructureTerrain suitabilityFlat to gently sloping terrain preferred; rocky/hilly terrain increases SDI installation costs
Farm StructureParcel sizesLarger consolidated parcels reduce per-hectare installation costs and enable mechanization
Farm StructurePrevalence of flood irrigationHigher flood share = greater potential for emission reduction and carbon credit generation
Farm StructureCrop suitability & rotationRow crops (corn, cotton) suit drip; forage/cereals require sprinkler; rotation affects system permanence
SocioeconomicFarmer openness & innovativenessMost-cited criterion (11 sources); pioneer farmers catalyze peer adoption
SocioeconomicEducation / awareness levelRegions with low awareness require heavier investment in training and demonstration
SocioeconomicIncome levels & economic powerFarmers in economic crisis cannot co-invest; programs must cover more of the cost
SocioeconomicAvailability of big farmersLarge operations are early adopters and demonstration sites (9 sources, 10 refs)
SocioeconomicAvailability of young farmersYounger generation more receptive to new practices and technology
EnvironmentClimate stabilityRegions with extreme events (freeze, 60°C heat) increase program risk
EnvironmentCrop diversityDiversified cropping systems reduce program risk from single-crop price collapse
PolicyPlaces with land consolidationConsolidation eliminates fragmentation barrier; prerequisite in some regions
PolicyGovernment support accessibilityRegions where subsidies/credits are actually accessible amplify program investment

Basin Profiles

Click each basin to expand detailed findings from stakeholder interviews. Sorted by priority ranking.

Konya Kapalı Basin
Konya (56%), Aksaray (14%)
High Priority

Irrigated Area

Cooperative irrigates 145,000 ha. Total Konya basin: 609,299 ha. Largest irrigated basin in Central Anatolia.

Main Crops

Cereals, sugar beet, corn, alfalfa, oilseed sunflower, confectionery squash.

Irrigation Status

No flood irrigation. Corn and sunflower mostly drip. Sugar beet, legumes, cereals on sprinkler.

Water Issues

High problem. Lakes and ponds are drying. Critical water stress driving adoption.

Parcel Sizes

Avg 50 da (cooperative), avg 160 da general. Big farmers 60–250 da, some at 500 da.

Socioeconomic

Not great income levels but they adopt drip irrigation. Ziraat bank loans used heavily but amounts decreasing.

Why High Priority

FAO identifies Konya closed basin as one of two most critical regions. Very low soil carbon = high sequestration potential. Already transitioning to drip. Severe water stress creates strong adoption motivation. Rising fertilizer costs already reducing application rates. Multiple stakeholders recommend this region.

FAO Priority High water stress Drip already adopted Low soil carbon = high potential Smaller parcels Low income levels
Fırat-Dicle Basin (Şanlıurfa)
22 cities; Şanlıurfa sub-basin interviewed
High Priority

Irrigated Area

~100,000 ha discussed. DSI managed Şanlıurfa: 471,430 ha. Largest irrigated area under GAP project.

Main Crops

Cotton, corn, cereals, peanut, lentils, potato, alfalfa, strawberry, pepper, watermelon. Diversifying rapidly.

Irrigation Status

Union in open canal but drip/sprinkler adoption increasing. Closed systems: cotton mostly drip, corn sprinkler. Government mandating drip for 2nd-crop maize.

Water Issues

Have water but declining. Atatürk dam levels getting lower. GAP water supply critical.

Parcel Sizes

5 da to 6,000–10,000 da but fragmented by inheritance. Wide range.

Practice Change Readiness

"These practice changes should come automatically." Visible soil erosion under flood motivates change. Topsoil loss documented in GAP region.

Why High Priority

FAO identifies Harran Plain (Urfa) as one of two most critical regions alongside Konya. Massive irrigated area with GAP infrastructure. Government already mandating drip. Drip adoption momentum strong. Open/closed canal cost differential documented: 3,000 TL vs 500–600 TL per irrigation event. Flat terrain ideal for SDI.

FAO Priority GAP infrastructure Gov't mandate Large irrigated area Fragmented parcels Low knowledge base
Fırat-Dicle Basin (Mardin)
Mardin sub-basin; distributor & farmer interviews
High Priority

Irrigated Area

Total Mardin ~150,000 ha. DSI managed: 12,273 ha. Significant expansion potential.

Main Crops

Corn, wheat, cotton. Double cropping common (wheat + corn in same year).

Irrigation Status

Less than 5% drip for corn, rest flood/sprinkler. Usually closed canal system. SDI adoption accelerating among pioneer farmers.

Water Issues

Water scarcity. Quality OK. Groundwater dropping: 120m to 240m depth. Electricity costs for pumping are critical.

Farmer Openness

"Farmers are culturally open to these kinds of projects." Pioneer farmers achieving record yields with SDI. Strong peer demonstration effect already happening.

Labor

Critical driver. 90% of well operators are Syrian migrants who may leave. SDI dramatically reduces labor needs.

Why High Priority

Strongest adoption momentum of any region. Pioneer farmers already demonstrating SDI success with peer cascading. Closed canal infrastructure largely available. Cultural openness to projects. Extreme economic pressure (inputs rising, prices stagnant) creates urgency. Labor crisis accelerating SDI adoption. Government increasing subsidies to 50–70%.

Pioneer farmers active Closed canals Culturally open Labor crisis = SDI driver Economic crisis Fragmented parcels
Sakarya Basin
Ankara (60%), Eskişehir (100%), Sakarya
High Priority

Irrigated Area

Union irrigates 20,000 ha. DSI: Eskişehir 120,599 ha, Sakarya 15,706 ha, Ankara 27,309 ha.

Main Crops

Sugar beet, potato, corn, hybrid sunflower seed, cereals, alfalfa.

Irrigation Status

Highly modern. Mostly drip for corn and sunflower. Sprinkler for sugar beet, potato, cereals. Long history of drip adoption.

Parcel Sizes

Avg 80–100 da, max 400–500 da. Mostly big consolidated parcels.

Socioeconomic

Educated farmers, using drip irrigation for a long time. Previously adapted from open canal to pressurized on their own initiative.

Practice Change

"Not familiar with emissions at all." But: if they know they will gain economically, "they would till less & use less fertilizer." Cash payments preferred.

Why High Priority

Most modern agricultural region assessed. Large parcels, educated farmers, existing drip infrastructure. Sunflower seed producers operate formally with insurance — natural fit for contractual programs. Infrastructure already in place; program can focus on practice optimization rather than irrigation transition. Multiple stakeholders recommend Eskişehir specifically.

Modern infrastructure Large parcels Educated farmers Formal operations Need economic proof Not emission-aware
Seyhan Basin (Adana)
Adana (45%), Kayseri (39%)
Medium-High

Irrigated Area

Union irrigates 70,000 ha. DSI total Adana: 420,203 ha. Massive area.

Irrigation Status

Corn 99% gravity/1% drip. Cotton and soybeans 100% gravity. Peanut 18% drip. Fruits/vegetables drip. Very low drip adoption for field crops.

Water System

Open canals common but some regions with closed systems. Mixed infrastructure.

Opportunities

Large farms (100–500 da, some 10,000 da). Labor costs driving interest. Water stress increasing (dam levels declining). Young farmers taking over.

Key Challenge

No fixed electricity in some areas. Open canal infrastructure limits pressurized adoption. Leader farmers may be difficult to convince due to their different risk profile. Recommendation: "Start with big farmers, emphasize decrease in costs and yield increase."

Large irrigated area Large parcels Water stress rising 99% gravity for corn Open canal infrastructure
Ceyhan Basin (Kahramanmaraş)
Kahramanmaraş (60%), Adana (18%)
Medium

Irrigated Area

Union: 9,600 ha. Total Kahramanmaraş: 132,456 ha.

Irrigation Status

Wheat 90% flood. Corn, cotton, soybeans mostly flood. Only 20% sprinkler/drip total. Peanuts 70–80% drip.

Key Challenge

Infrastructure not ready. 70% of farmers not aware/capable. Inherited fragmented lands block subsidy access. Renters use flood. Excessive fertilizer use via tractors/drones.

Recommendation

Implement through intermediary organizations (unions, cooperatives) rather than individual farmers. Focus on places with piped systems already.

Fertigation demand Infrastructure not ready 70% unaware Fragmented land
Susurluk Basin (Bursa)
Balıkesir (76%), Bursa (66%)
Medium

Irrigated Area

Union: 21,333 ha. Bursa DSI: 126,591 ha. Balıkesir DSI: 121,394 ha.

Irrigation Status

80% drip, 13% sprinkler, 5–7% flood. Open canals but farmers install own pumps/dynamos. EU-standard agriculture.

Key Feature

Already highly adopted drip. Farmers avoid deep tillage due to high groundwater. But excessive synthetic fertilizer use — optimization opportunity. Demonstrate that open-canal regions can still do drip with pump solutions.

Limitation

Drip already common here — limited additional carbon credit potential from irrigation change. Better suited for fertilizer optimization and tillage programs.

80% already drip EU-standard farming Limited additionality Small parcels
Doğu Akdeniz (Mersin)
Mersin (68% of basin)
Medium

Irrigated Area

DSI managed: 74,338 ha. Large parcels 100–650 da.

Irrigation Status

Corn 90% flood. Soybeans/forage flood. Vegetables and citrus drip. High conversion potential for field crops.

Key Insight

Farmers already reduce fertilizer and change tillage perspective when switching to drip. No-till not possible after corn but reduced tillage feasible. "If tillage practices involve economic risk, farmers need insurance."

Challenge

Income declining. Frost losses. Corn/cotton production decreasing due to low prices. Water uncertainty. Government making "wrong strategies and short-term decisions."

90% flood corn = high potential Large parcels Declining economy Policy instability
Kızılırmak Basin (Nevşehir / Kayseri)
Yozgat, Sivas hold largest areas
Medium

Irrigated Area

Nevşehir DSI: 12,460 ha. Sivas DSI: 96,402 ha. Yozgat: 53,218 ha. Kayseri DSI: 102,585 ha.

Irrigation Status

No flood. Potato 85–90% sprinkler. Corn 70–80% drip. Sugar beet sprinkler. Rogar water delivery system. Some regions do SDI for corn/sugar beet but interest limited by cost.

Opportunity

Innovative farmers exist. Farmers becoming aware of deep tillage harm — may accept subsoiling every 3–4 years only. Larger parcels (60–80 da avg, Aksaray 300–400 da).

Challenge

Farmers in debt, not investing. Significant subsidy access barriers. Well permit restrictions. Sediment in river water requires filtration. Kayseri: interest in SDI low due to high filtration costs.

No flood irrigation Large parcels (Aksaray) Farmer debt Subsidy barriers
Gediz Basin (Menderes / Manisa)
Manisa (64%), İzmir (Menemen)
Low-Medium

Irrigated Area

Union: 23,500 ha. Manisa total: 147,149 ha.

Critical Issue

Very salty water and soil. Farmers use flood irrigation specifically to reduce saltiness — drip would concentrate salts. All open canal system. 7 m³/sec water lost. Infrastructure upgrade estimated at $7–8M USD for just one union. Marmara Lake has dried; using Demirköprü dam but insufficient.

Why Low Priority

Salt water makes drip counterproductive without major infrastructure investment. Farmers are conscious and experienced but the physical constraint of salinity and open canals is structural. Would require closed canal conversion + desalination investment beyond program scope. Viticulture side already uses drip.

Salty water/soil All open canals $7-8M infrastructure gap Conscious farmers
Büyük Menderes (Aydın)
Denizli (32%), Aydın (29%)
Low

Why Low

Very small parcels (avg 10 da Aydın, 3.7 da Karpuzlu). All open canals, no energy infrastructure. Poor water quality with high sediment. 75% of irrigated areas are unsuitable for pressurized systems due to topography or current infrastructure. Farmers attached to traditional methods. "50% subsidy is not enough." Severe drought (50–60% less irrigation than needed).

Akarçay (Afyonkarahisar)
Afyonkarahisar (79%)
Low

Why Low

All closed canals and 90–95% corn already on drip — limited additionality. Small parcels (40–50 da avg). "No opportunities — Sakarya and Konya would be suitable." Culturally attached to traditional tillage. Crops not ideal (wheat/barley dominant, not row-suitable). Farmers self-fund since too small for subsidies.

Küçük Menderes (İzmir)
95% İzmir
Low

Why Low

Corn 95% flood, potato furrow. Very small parcels (avg 10 da, max 40 da). Strict subsidy requirements exclude most farmers. Traditional methods deeply entrenched. "Farmers are unlikely to adopt practice changes." Newly installed smart prepaid meters may shift behavior over time but region not ready for program.

Batı Karadeniz (Düzce)
Kastamonu, Bartın, Karabük, Düzce
Low

Why Low

All flood irrigation. Very small parcels (2–10 da). Open canals. Closed system plan since 2016 but no implementation. Government prioritizes industry in Düzce. Interestingly, farmers want SDI and pressure government for it. Rice production growing. Could become medium priority if infrastructure is built. "There should be land consolidation and water canal system change."

Burdur Basin
Burdur (50%)
Low

Why Low

Used to drip for corn but cereals/sugar beet/alfalfa on sprinkler (not row-plantable). Pipes need annual replacement; mice/moles destroy multi-year pipes. Attached to traditional tillage. Small parcels (3–120 da). Water levels declining since 2020, losing second-crop capacity. "They would not want to switch from sprinkler to drip."

Additional Basins Assessed

Basins with partial interviews or secondary data that inform the broader picture.

Fırat-Dicle (Malatya)

Fruits/apricot dominant. Mixed open/closed canals. Farmers use motopomp workarounds. Small parcels (10 da avg). "If they know what they will earn, they would avoid deep tillage." Recommends aware regions like Mediterranean/Aegean or Çukurova for cotton.

Fırat-Dicle (Gaziantep)

Pistachio SDI expanding (mandatory due to woodpecker risk). Post-earthquake groundwater decline. "They have to see the benefit with their eyes." Ağa culture in Urfa makes convincing harder. Adıyaman very dry. People in Antep are more educated and open.

Kuzey Ege (Ayvacık)

Completely closed canal. Most already switched to drip due to droughts. Prepaid electricity model made farmers cautious with water. No deep tillage (max 25–30 cm). Excessive fertilizer only in vegetable production. Limited additionality.

Kızılırmak (Kayseri)

Sugar beet mainly sprinkler, slowly switching to drip. SDI interest low due to high filtration costs. 300–400 da parcels. Farmers in debt. Subsidy access barriers and well permit restrictions.