An interactive model of the implementer economics of carbon-financed flood→drip conversion under Verra VM0042. Adjust the carbon price, emission-reduction scenario, model error, sampling intensity and adoption path to see how they drive credited reductions, NPV, break-even and the value of additional measurement.
More sampling lowers the deduction → higher NPV, until the σmodel floor and cost flatten the curve. Dot = current nh.
Where the line crosses zero is the break-even year. Credits are claimed at verification events (Y5, Y10, Y15).
Credited reduction per hectare is the modelled emission reduction minus the VM0042 uncertainty deduction: credited ER = ER × (1 − UNC), where UNC = √(s²Δ)/ER × t, s²Δ = 2σ²model + (σ²flood+σ²drip)/nh, and t = 0.4307 (the VCS deduction factor). The model error σmodel is an irreducible floor; the sampling term shrinks with nh. Enrolled area follows a Bass-diffusion adoption path; credits are claimed at verification years and valued at the carbon price, net of MRV, verification and personnel costs and the issuance levy. The rotation applies corn (carbon-core) and cotton years; only corn's credited ER responds to nh.
To be added as the analysis matures: per-domain (D1–D9) aggregation, measure-vs-model-vs-defer decision layer, Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (P(NPV>0) / Sharpe ratio), and the scaling-roadmap optimiser.
| ER, corn flood→drip (Scenario B / A) | 3.59 / 6.18 tCO₂e/ha |
| σflood / σdrip (Scenario B) | 3.822 / 0.153 tCO₂e/ha |
| Cotton credited ER (model-only) | ≈ 0.53 tCO₂e/ha |
| Soil sampling cost | $61.88 × nh / yr |
| N₂O validation (Y0) | $21,452 |
| Verra setup / VVB / model fee (Y0) | $6,000 / $35,000 / $61,686 |
| Verification (Y5/Y10/Y15) | $27,500 each |
| Personnel / maintenance | $27,000 / $750 per yr |
| Issuance levy | $0.34 / VCU |
| Adoption ceilings (Cons/Med/Opt) | 35,016 / 109,425 / 183,833 ha |